Can maths tell the future asks The Guardian:

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita The author of a new book called Predictioneer, makes big-picture forecasts employing maths, and a laptop that has been so heavily used its letters have worn away.

The economist JK Galbraith observed, forecasters typically come in two kinds: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. What may make Bueno de Mesquita different is his hit rate. According to the CIA, his model is correct 90% of the time, even when experts are wrong. Nor does he go in for vague Mystic Meg-isms: last year, he forecast when Pakistani president Pervez Musharaf would be forced from power to within a month. Aditya Chakrabortty, The Guardian.

Unsurprisingly Bueno de Mesquita’s algorithms are secret and proprietary and thus aren’t subject to peer review – otherwise how could he make a profit and what profits he’s making.

Though controversial in the academic world, Bueno de Mesquita and his model have proven quite popular in the private sector. In addition to his teaching responsibilities and consulting for the government, he also runs a successful private business, Mesquita & Roundell, with offices in Rockefeller Center. Advising some of the top companies in the country, he earns a tidy sum: Mesquita & Roundell’s minimum fee is $50,000 for a project that includes two issues. Most projects involve multiple issues. “I’m not selling my wisdom,” he says. “I’m selling a tool that can help them get better results. That tool is the model.” Michael Lerner, Good.

Bueno de Mesquita has been described in a History Channel documentary as the next Nostradamus, which if you’ve ever read Nostradamus is no compliment his supposed predictions are the incomprehensible ramblings of a madman open to whatever interpretation you might envisage – which to be quite honest is might well be the output from Bueno de Mesquita programs: except we’ll never know.

My answer to can he predict the future? No of course he can’t what I can predict is he’ll make a lot of money from gullible businesses and individuals – most probably many of them involved in the banking sector – I’m with JK Galbraith on forecasters.